ON COVID-19: WHAT'S NEXT?

So, what is next for the world?  Is it Sally Bowles, flappers and bathtub gin followed by Nazis?  Or, will the world get serious and conquer education barriers, the filthiness and greed of organized religion, assure everyone has access to a doctor and medicine, and explore other worlds in the name of solving population problems on Mother Earth?

After the last pandemic that killed about 50,000,000 of our fellow citizens between 1918 and 1920, we turned to automobiles and airplanes to travel.  Music changed to happier and more moving tones [Rhapsody in Blue].  The movies got bawdier and began talking to us.  Women got out of their corsets and brassieres and began to talk back and win their place along with their vote.

Unfortunately, people went crazy and thought the stock market and business would grow forever, thinking an end could never happen.  And, about the same time a group called Nazis, along with their fellow travelers in Italy and Japan and Spain, popped up and diverted our attention away from enjoying ourselves and we began killing each other.

Is this what will happen after the Coronavirus is gone?  Will people go crazy for a while?  Perhaps we will want to have sex with anyone or anything that will stand still long enough to have our way with them…forget the consequences.  Or, will marijuana and other drugs replace the bathtub gin and everyone will just self-medicate to forget their troubles.  Will music make us move our hips again together or will it become dancing alone to our own drummer.  Maybe clothing will become optional for many.  Or, perhaps, we will decide that certain people do not deserve to breathe the air we share and we will figure out legal methods for annihilating them, removing them from the gene pool.

Why am I thinking of these things in this time when people should be thinking about loved ones?  Or, perhaps envisioning a more positive future?  Or, maybe how we could cure the world of this disease?  The fact is it is easy for me to think this way.  I am 72 years old.  I do not have much of a future in the post-pandemic world.  My life, for the most part, has been lived.  I will not be the same, nor live the same, in the post-COVID-19 world. 

I have been locked down in quarantine in my adopted country of Colombia since the morning of March 20, 2020.  For you math whizzes out there, that is 57 days as of 15 May 2020.  I am highly educated (Bachelor’s and Master’s degrees, History and Business, respectively, along with graduate-level courses in Psychiatry and Philosophy).  I am highly intelligent (though not the best scrivener).  My brain thinks clearly in terms of what affects human nature. 

I am expecting that I will no longer be able to travel the world as I have done my whole life.  After all, I first arrived in Colombia when I was a 19-year-old U.S. Marine.  Though healthy now, I am expecting my body will continue to disintegrate with age while my brain remains active and thoughtful.  I also expect humans will remain the same, i.e. 20% will be good, 20% will be bad, and 60% will continue to utter, “I don’t give a shit.” I always factor in a plus or minus 5% for each category at any point in time.

So, we could be headed for Mel Gibson’s Mad Max country…very grim with every man and woman for themselves.  It could be a world where doctors would care for only those who can pay a premium and where anti-vaxxers have decided disease is for the brave.  It could be a place where we gave up on changing the environment.  Who needs a Brazilian rain forest when Brazilians need goods to sell to the world?  So what that some people lost their homes and do not have a place to live.  We can now sell ocean-front homes in Orlando and Atlanta and Sacramento.  Kids are dumber because all education is online, but what the heck there are no jobs worth having.  Collect a stimulus check and live on legal marijuana and Cheetos^®.

Not a great place to live, but I don’t care.  I won’t be alive to see it.  You chumps all decided that is where you wanted to be and you built it.  Good for you.  Give the people what they want I say.  That is why it is called democracy.  If you want a haircut or a gun in the middle of a viral pandemic, go for it.  What business is it of mine to tell you how to live?

Or, perhaps, there is another way.  Maybe after the virus has subsided there are left in society some sharp, educated, caring adults and children who do not think the world is doomed.  Perhaps there are people who are empathetic and care about their fellow human beings.  Maybe there even exist people who see a way to make changes for the better of all, not just for the few.  These people want the world to live better, not just scam the world to make a quick buck or Euro or Peso.  Of course, to accomplish this, they will have to start by changing the political leadership in their country. 

For the sake of discussion, let us think about changing the USA.  After all, it has been the dominant power in the world for at least the last 80 years.  Maybe that will last after the pandemic, maybe not.  But, let us think about what might happen. 

Perhaps the people elect occupants for the White House and the Senate and the House of Representatives who care about people, not corporations and only themselves.  The people who voted for them get behind these new leaders and push them to create a better place for people to live in peace and harmony in the USA and the world.

Let us start with giving up war, freeing up trillions of dollars better spent on people…food, shelter, education, healthcare.  Unless someone from another nation crosses our borders and destroys a tower or mall or even a single individual, we stay out of other countries militarily.  If, however, 15 Saudi nationals destroy a tower with airplanes, then Saudi nationals, sitting at home, will pay the price.  But, no more searching for oil and treasure around the world. 

Next, let us understand what stopping war and building an economy creating cell phone apps means.  People with skills like digging coal and rolling steel are no longer needed because there is no need for the product or we have created robots to perform the tasks.  We don’t need all these workers.  We could kill them off, perhaps with another pandemic.  But that would really suck, don't you think?  After all, who wants to tell someone their grandmother or sister are not needed anymore.

Instead, let us give them enough money to live on, say $2,000 a month.  Make it tax free.  No more need for Medicaid or food stamps or unemployment insurance or welfare.  Give people money for food and rent and leave them alone to care for themselves [America First].

Third, let us create a healthcare system that allows doctors and hospitals and clinics to take care of us without worrying about payment.  No more bankruptcy for inability to pay the high cost of care.  Let Medicare, like the Veterans Administration, negotiate pricing for pharmaceuticals and durable medical goods like wheelchairs and walkers.  This is real capitalism…if you cannot compete on price and quality, you go out of business.  A dollar in Manhattan, New York, is the same as a dollar in Manhattan, Kansas.  Pay every doctor and hospital and clinic the same amount for the same procedure.  Bonuses could be available on top of these payments for doctors and nurses and hospitals providing care in under served areas of the country or caring for under served populations.

For jobs, we will need people to build roads and bridges and power plants and windmills and airports and more.  We will still need a military and a government.  Let us create a service-for-all mentality.  Every citizen shall be required to serve a minimum of two years in local, state or federal government.  Everyone must learn to work with their fellow citizens and learn how to give to the community versus take from the rest of us.  Building bridges or learning how to fly a military helicopter, all have a place.  Perhaps even creating a hack-resistant military or power structure is in your future.

Whatever happens, I will not be here to see it.  I can only hope that people see doing good for others is better than being selfish.  Selfishness got us into the pandemic.  Selfishness is keeping us from solving the problem quickly.  Whether it is those who want to keep secret what is happening in their country or the silly gun-toting overweight Mid-westerners complaining they cannot go out and get a haircut.  Each is selfish and, therefore, not worth the skin wrapped around their bones. 

The selfish should pass on from this life quickly.  Those who understand they live in a world with others should prosper and grow.  Think of it like the coral under the sea that pollution killed.  Get rid of the pollution, cleanse the sea of its illness, and watch the coral regain color and radiance.

On the 21st Century: It is Time to Change How U.S. Citizens Are Compensated

The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act was passed by Congress and signed into law by President Trump on March 27th, 2020.  It is estimated to cost U.S. taxpayers $2.2 Trillion.  A small part of the package includes direct payments to individual taxpayers, estimated in the amount of $290 Billion, or less than 13.5% of the total bailout. 

Besides providing cash to small businesses to keep employees working, CARES gives wealthy real estate investors an estimated $1.6 million each in tax breaks.  Before the President’s signature had time to dry, however, stories of giant publicly-traded corporations taking money intended for small businesses began appearing everywhere.  These corporate giants left nothing for small business.  Weeks later Congress had to pass additional legislation adding $480 Billion to the program.  It appears that most of this bailout money is not going where it was intended to go, to help save our economy, but instead is going into the pockets of those already wealthy.

According to Hale Stewart, in a piece he wrote for The New York Times  in 2010, 70% of U.S. economic growth is driven by consumers, ordinary Americans spending money on clothes, food, cars, boats, medicine, homes, electricity, lumber, haircuts, dry cleaning, and so on.  Knowing this is true, then why do politicians consistently give money to businesses in an economic emergency rather than giving money directly to consumers to spend?  It makes no economic sense.   At best, only 30% of bailout money should go directly to businesses, and then only to those most affected by whatever emergency has arisen. 

The COVID-19 pandemic has shown the glaring inequities in the U.S. economy.  Large numbers of our citizens are employed in low paying jobs.  This means people don’t have the cushion required to keep the economy going if they lose work for a few weeks or a month.  Give them the money they need to live a basic life. Let them work and earn additional income in our new “gig” and online full-employment economy. Then, get out of the way as they rebuild the U.S. economy in record time.  Quit thinking 19^th and 20^th Century store-front businesses need to be kept alive in the 21^st Century with bailouts.  They do not. 

If you believe in capitalism as a valid economic system the only question you need ask is, “How do I get cash into the hands of consumers?”   Do not attempt to save the businesses, save the people and then watch these consumers save businesses.  Consumers will choose what businesses survive in our new economy.  If consumers want Amazon to grow, it will grow.  If the people want environmentally sound businesses to grow, then these businesses will prosper.  A true capitalist would let consumers decide what is important in America.  It is not the job of politicians and lobbyists and corporations. 

How can we do this?  Start by giving every U.S. citizen over the age of 18 a minimum payment of $2,000 per month.  Make no exceptions for their income.  Make no exceptions if they are married.  Make no exceptions if they are living with their parents.  Make no requirement that they work or be employed.  Give every citizen $24,000 a year, tax free, via direct deposit or debit card recharge.  Let them spend it any way they see fit.  Whether they choose travel or rent, food or video games, it’s their choice.  Call the program, Americans First.

Stockton, California, has been experimenting with this type of program for about a year.  The program gives a group of citizens $500 each month.  What the city has found to date is interesting.  Recipients are spending this "extra" money every month on food, merchandise, utility bills, and car repairs and gasoline.  People are continuing their employment and spending the money on necessities, not buying drugs or lazing about as warned by naysayers.

Americans First would assure those who already receive a Federal benefit, like VA disability, Social Security, SSI, or a Federal pension, would be paid a minimum of $2,000 per month.  If a recipient already receives $1,600 per month, she would receive an additional $400 each month to supplement her social security.  If someone receives more than $2,000 monthly from any similar source, that amount would stay the same.  However, only the first $2,000 would be free from Federal taxes.  Two adults in the same household would receive $4,000 monthly.  If they have three children under the age of 18, they still receive only $4,000.  There would be no reward for having children.  If the child is over 18 years, then that child would receive $2,000 in their name, not their parents. 

Giving U.S. citizens direct payments is not a new idea.  Interestingly, every time cash has been given to citizens in recent history it has been done by a Republican President.  Richard Nixon, George W. Bush, and Donald Trump have all given money directly to citizens.  You would not dare call these men communists, socialists, progressive, or even liberal.

Under the Nixon Administration, beginning in 1969, the Family Assistance Plan provided families with financial assistance ranging from $1,600 to $2,400 each month.  In 2008 President Bush provided checks in the amount of $600 to individuals, $1200 to couples and $300 for each child.  Social Security recipients received $300 each.  Extended in 2009 under the Making Work Pay Act, individuals received an additional $400, couples $800.  And, though to date not everyone has received their payment, President Trump personally signed checks in the amount of $1,200 for individuals and $500 for each child under the age of 16. 

Why did these Republican Presidents do this?  Nixon’s plan was to get rid of the need for welfare programs.  Bush’s plan was to get money flowing into the economy after the great financial crash of 2008.  And, of course, Trump’s plan is to get money into the U.S. economy during a worldwide pandemic.

Nixon’s idea was sound.  If every American has a floor, a bottom that provides food and basic shelter, there would be no need for “welfare” or even unemployment insurance.  If you eliminated these poverty programs you would chop well more than a Trillion dollars from the Federal budget.  Citizens would have basic income, enough to allow survival.  If someone wants a better lifestyle, they can have it.  They can work in the “gig” economy or become a politician or school teacher or labor as a policeman or Amazon warehouse worker.  Very few Americans will settle for the lifestyle a mere $24,000 a year provides.  And remember, they would pay taxes on every cent they earned over their $2,000 monthly base.

One of the reasons our economy has been so sluggish since the Great Recession of 2008 is the American people don’t have any money.  According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the median income for a full-time wage or salary worker is $900 a week.  These low paying jobs provide barely enough for food and shelter, much less extra money to buy non-essentials.  It does not make any difference that, until recently, unemployment was very low.

My plan puts money in the hands of people to pay for their bare necessities.  And, even a minimum wage job paying $7.25 per hour would give an individual another $15,000 to spend and push the economy out of its doldrums.  Americans First will allow us to see economic numbers not seen since the 1960’s or 1980’s.  In the 1960’s, even with a war raging in Southeast Asia, the average growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per year was 4.19%.  The 1980’s witnessed growth so dramatic President Clinton was able to turn the budget deficit around.

On the other hand, between 2008 and 2018, the GDP has risen an average of less than 1.6% a year. It has been slow to rise because the only people with money are the very rich.  They are spending all they can, but there are too few of them to bolster the economy.  We need to recognize that when all citizens have money to spend, the U.S. economy grows exponentially. 

Paying for this is relatively easy with the elimination of welfare programs like Medicaid, Aid for Dependent Children, private school vouchers, food stamps, unemployment insurance, and more.  Though you would be adding monthly to some payments for veterans and social security recipients, for example, you would subtract out those amounts that are already being paid to these people as that money is already budgeted.  For example, Social Security already pays out about $1 Trillion per year in benefits.  Thus, only the additional money would be added to the Federal budget monthly and Social Security is a self-funded program through FICA taxes. 

Example of New Federal Income Tax Rates 

Couple these budget savings with a progressive graduated Federal income tax program that collects taxes on all income over $24,000 per year and you’ve turned America around without bailing out any business.  The new Federal income tax schedule would eliminate all standard and itemized deductions.  No more maximum inheritance tax rates.  No more different rates of taxation for investors.    Money earned would be taxed no matter how it was earned…death, investment, or salary.  Individuals are individuals. No more married deductions and no more deductions for dependents.  Tax brackets for individuals would return to mirror those formerly used by the Eisenhower administration as you can see here. 

Corporations would be taxed similarly.  The only deductions allowed for corporations would be for reinvestment, e.g. for equipment, people, or real estate.  If you are not growing your business, you pay higher taxes.  The new code would provide straight dollar deductions.

I know many could argue against such an approach.  For example, is $2,000 the right amount for a floor?  What taxes should people pay for income generated above the floor? Will people work if they are given basic income? 

What I do not think can be argued, however, is that giving money to consumers, in a consumer-driven economy, is nonsense.  It is a better idea for our 21^st Century economy than 19th Century Darwinism.  Capitalism is about business, not people.  American citizens should not be treated as some sort of Darwinian experiment.  Businesses should be allowed to go under if they do not provide a good product, presented at the right price and at the right time.  

Because there is no work available or the work is changing faster than the skill sets or the only work available pays starvation wages is not an excuse to allow people to go under, to die.  Allowing people to die because capitalism has not evolved with the times would be worse than Darwinian, it would be immoral and, perhaps, criminal.